Is India losing its ground in Nepal?
“Frankly, we do not like and shall not brook any foreign interference in Nepal. We recognize Nepal as an independent country and wish her well, but even a child knows that one cannot go to Nepal without passing through India. Therefore, no other country can have as intimate a relationship with Nepal as ours” said India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru at the parliament on December 6, 1950.
This intimate relationship that Nehru had once envisioned might cripple in the coming days as all is not well between India and Nepal after cartographic disputes and word spats pop up last week.
Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Oli attacked India saying “Indian virus is more dangerous than the Chinese and Italian ones.”
The scenario with no doubts is snowballing into a geopolitical flashpoint in Asia after India’s Army Chief MM Naravane hinting at the role of Chinese in exacerbating the border dispute with Nepal and the United States asking India to “resist the Chinese aggression” after Indian and Chinese troops clash at Ladakh where China claims that Indian troops have trespassed into its territory.
The backstory
The dispute isn’t out of the blue and it had flared up most recently when India published a new map showcasing the bifurcation on Jammu and Kashmir back in November last year. The map depicted Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura as part of Uttarakhand which Nepal had vehemently protested calling it “an Indian occupation of two per cent of its land”.
Current diplomatic fracas popped up after the inauguration of 80 km road by India’s defence minister Rajnath Singh which goes through the disputed territory.
Nepal as an act of retaliation has released a new map that includes all the territory it claims. New Delhi had rejected the move saying it wasn’t based on historical facts.
The dispute
The issue date back to the British era. The Britishers ensured that the Nepali rulers’ territorial aims did not pose a threat to their imperialism in India. The Sugauli Treaty on Nepal in 1816 after a decisive victory by the British in two-years-long Anglo-Nepalese war has got a major role to play in today’s tussle. The treaty claims that “the Rajah of Nepal renounces for himself, his heirs, and successors all claim to or connection with the countries lying to the west of river Kali and engages never to have any concern with those countries or inhabitants thereof.”
But the treaty fails to come out with a concrete accord on accurate location of rive Kali which lead to dispute between two sovereign nations.
Nepal government citing the treaty of Sugauli wanted their western side to be coincided with the borders, India argues that Kalapani has been within the limit of Uttarakhand since 1830s.
What next?
Having seen Narendra Modi’s muscular and nationalistic politics, it’s highly unlikely to have India behave in a subservient manner with Nepal over the dispute matter. KP Oli on the other hand who is already buckling under pressure from dissidents within his own party seems to have interest in raising tensions over the dispute with India. But if things go south, Oli might face a massive backlash that can take a toll on his political career.
India’s foreign ministry while commenting on the issue had said that both nations are likely to hold foreign secretary level discussions after pandemic ends. Well that’s the way forward for India and Nepal at this moment.
